Explain the middle east balance of power

Justice Council Political Analysis

The balance is held first by geography and reach: Iran can shut the Strait of Hormuz, and US military superiority has not reopened it. Second, patrons extend money, arms and trade without binding defence commitments — China buys Iranian crude while refusing formal defence ties, and Gulf states add pacts such as the Saudi–Pakistan agreement to their US ties. Third, the tier that could enforce navigation is a veto-bound Security Council, so the IMO Council's call for unhindered transit carries no mechanism.

The balance is set by three things the record establishes: who can close the Strait of Hormuz, who will commit force to whom, and who can authorise enforcement. - Geography and reach: Iran can shut the Strait, and US military superiority has not restored normal shipping; world crude imports from the region fell about 45% in March 2026 and LNG imports 52% (I2). - Patrons without binding commitments: China buys Iranian crude and supplies dual-use components while avoiding formal defence ties (G1), and Gulf states add diversified pacts such as the Saudi–Pakistan agreement to their US ties (R3). - A veto-bound legal tier: five Security Council members hold the veto (N4), so the IMO Council's call for unhindered transit carries no mechanism (I3).

The remedy

Convert the IMO Council's call into an enforced navigation regime — a Security Council decision with a compliance mechanism, or the full reopening provided for in the US–Iran interim agreement — and put any guarantee extended to Gulf states in binding terms identical for every party.

Sources

International & regional bodies

IEA, WTO and IMO records treat the Hormuz closure since late February 2026 as a supply shock, a trade disruption and an unresolved navigation crisis; the IMO Council's July resolution reaffirms transit passage without creating any enforcement mechanism.

Governments & official records

The US–China Commission records that China supplies Iran with dual-use components and buys its crude while avoiding formal defence commitments; the Abraham Accords Declaration sets out the declaratory framework of Arab–Israeli normalisation.

Research institutes

Carnegie reads the regional order as fluid, with Iraq the arena of Iran–Israel–US confrontation; Brookings finds Gulf states diversifying defence through the Saudi–Pakistan pact; Pakistan's foreign ministry pledges support to Saudi Arabia and offers to mediate the Iran–US conflict.

News & reporting

Reporting describes a double blockade at Hormuz that collapsed shipping traffic despite US military superiority, Hezbollah's weakening as the opening for Israel–Lebanon talks, and Israel's turn from Western European partners after settlement sanctions.