explain the middle east balance of power
International & regional bodies
The IEA and Crisis Group document the war ignited by the US-Israel strikes on Iran (from 28 February 2026) as the dominant force disrupting regional order, closing the Strait of Hormuz and spreading conflict risk across a dozen countries.
Research institutes
Carnegie, Brookings, Atlantic Council and Arab Center analysts describe a region moving toward a fragmented, multipolar order: Iran's Axis of Resistance has weakened, Gulf states are hedging through new defense pacts, but the GCC itself remains structurally divided by Saudi-UAE rivalry.
- The Evolving Middle Eastern Regional Order: Türkiye-Iraq Relations in Context · carnegieendowment.org
- Can the Gulf Cooperation Council Transcend Its Divisions? · carnegieendowment.org
- Diversification Without Substitution: What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement Offers Saudi Arabia · arabcenterdc.org
- Why Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey just signed a defense pact · atlanticcouncil.org
News & reporting
Reporting shows US reluctance to intervene militarily is pushing Gulf states toward diversified alliances even as Iran-aligned actors gain ground in Yemen's Red Sea corridor and lose ground in Lebanon.
- The weakening of Hezbollah and the fragile path to Israel-Lebanon normalization · jpost.com
- How far will Egypt go to help Saudi Arabia secure the Red Sea? · aljazeera.com
- Saudi Arabia's Houthi crisis tests alliances with Trump, Turkey and Pakistan · al-monitor.com
- Al Jazeera — How the US-Iran war may push Gulf countries to diversify security alliances · aljazeera.com
Justice Council Political Analysis
The region's balance of power is fragmented rather than fixed: US selective engagement, Iran's weakened but still disruptive proxy network, unresolved Saudi-UAE rivalry, and new but structurally thin alliance pacts are together producing a Gulf-centered but internally divided order, with no single power able to enforce stability.
Converting the Mecca and Saudi-Pakistan pacts from undisclosed pledges into an enforceable structure - a published text, a joint command, or explicit US intervention thresholds - alongside GCC institutional reform, would replace the current ad hoc hedging with a balance of power that can actually be tested.
Conclusion
The Middle East's balance of power is currently fragmented and in flux rather than settled. The US-Israel war on Iran since February 2026 weakened Iran's regional proxy network while exposing the limits of US security guarantees, pushing Gulf states toward new but structurally thin alliances (the Saudi-Pakistan and Mecca defense pacts) even as Saudi-UAE rivalry keeps the GCC itself divided.