What will it take for nighbouring nations to support Palestine ?

Justice Council Political Analysis

Three things keep neighbouring states at the level of statements rather than action, in order of weight. First, they depend on others: on US security guarantees and aid, on gas and debt arrangements tied to Israel and Europe, and on regime survival. Second, the Gulf is divided, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE pulling in different directions and normalisation with Israel continuing. Third, the rules they invoke are mostly declaratory and are not enforced against Israel.

Neighbouring states are unlikely to move from words to action until three things happen: their dependence on the US, on gas deals and on debt relief costs them less, the Gulf states agree a common position, and Israel faces real costs for ignoring the ICJ and Security Council rulings. The most workable route is collective action under each country's own laws, of the kind the Hague Group has started, combined with conditions on energy, trade and normalisation. Statements on their own have not changed anything.

The levers

  1. Join coordinated legal and economic measures Egypt, Jordan and the Gulf states could adopt the Hague Group measures through their own laws alongside Iraq and Oman. Acting together spreads the diplomatic cost, and no veto can block national measures. The price is friction with Washington.
  2. Use energy and trade as leverage The 1973 Arab oil embargo showed that energy leverage can move Western policy. Today's equivalent would be making gas exports and normalisation conditional on Israel complying with the ICJ's rulings. The cost to Egypt would be severe given its debt and energy needs.
  3. Close Saudi-UAE ranks on normalisation A common Gulf condition, with no further normalisation without a binding path to a Palestinian state, would give Gulf states bargaining power. Their rivalry has so far prevented it.
  4. Condemnation without measures Repeated joint statements that carry no follow-up have accompanied, rather than slowed, annexation bills and deeper normalisation. They signal that Israel will pay no price.

Sources

International & regional bodies

The Hague Group's Bogotá declaration of July 2025 shows what active support looks like in practice. Thirty states called for an immediate ceasefire, and 13 committed to six measures, applied through their own laws, to break ties of complicity with Israel's campaign.

Governments & official records

Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and 11 other Arab and Islamic governments jointly condemned the Knesset's annexation bills as violating Security Council Resolution 2334 and the International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion. They affirmed that Israel has no sovereignty over the occupied territory.

Research institutes

Carnegie's analysis finds that Egypt's support for Palestine has been shaped by energy interdependence. Despite sharp political tension, in December 2025 Egypt expanded its gas deal with Israel through 2040, tied to European demand for liquefied gas.

News & reporting

Reports show neighbours holding defensive red lines while normalisation continues. Egypt's President Sisi rejects displacing Gaza's people into Sinai. Meanwhile, Morocco and Israel have agreed to raise their missions to full embassies under the Abraham Accords.