What are the levers of global power in order?

Summary

Industrial capacity, money and military reach outrank institutions as levers of global power; soft power, media and public opinion rank lowest, multiplying rather than replacing the material levers above them.

What it argues

1. Ranking the levers of power

   Productive and industrial capacity ranks first among five levers of global power. Money and markets, military reach, institutional gatekeeping and state capital follow in that order. Material capacity funds and outranks the other levers, including institutional rules.

2. China challenges US order

   China's manufacturing lead is called the main challenge to the US-centred order. A SAIIA paper describes that order itself as an expression of American power. Industrial strength, not institutional standing, is reshaping the global order.

3. Institutions bend to power

   Gatekeeping of institutions, including the veto and control of funding, ranks fourth and holds only as far as the strongest states allow. Limiting the veto and fixing UN funding so no single contributor can hold it hostage are proposed to restore institutions as a check. Proposed reforms target institutional rules, not the underlying material power.

4. Money and markets second

   Control of money and markets ranks second among the five levers. This covers the reserve currency, sanctions and trade access. Financial control is the leading non-material lever of global power.

5. Limits of sanctions

   Sanctions push targeted states toward each other, showing financial coercion has limits. Middle powers such as South Africa face sanctions pressure because they engage all sides. Financial coercion can backfire and falls hardest on states that stay non-aligned.

6. Building independent capacity

   Weaker states can loosen others' hold by building their own industry and skills. Developing independent payment and trade channels is proposed as part of this. The proposed remedy for weaker states is domestic capacity, not institutional reform alone.

7. Soft power ranks last

   Soft power, media and public opinion rank below the five material levers, acting as a force multiplier rather than an independent base. Opinion can be bought through state capital and steered by messaging strategies, including to win consent for a war already chosen. Gulf states' sovereign wealth funds invest in media and sports as a direct case of money converting into soft and sharp power. Soft power multiplies material levers rather than standing apart as its own source of power.

8. Credibility tied to results

   Soft power's credibility depends on material and economic performance and fades once events contradict it. Narrative control frays when audiences see events for themselves, as with US opposition to the Iran war from the start. The global contest of governing models is decided mainly by who delivers results, not by who tells the better story. Narrative power cannot outlast visible reality or sustained delivery.

Follow-up questions