Muslim Majorities Protection: Refugees and the Displaced

Summary

Pakistan, Iran, Lebanon and Turkey are driving mass returns of Afghan and Syrian refugees as humanitarian funding collapses, while Syria's reconstruction proceeds without a rights framework protecting returnees' homes and claims.

What it argues

1. Afghan mass deportations

   Pakistan and Iran forcibly returned about 500,000 Afghans in two months in 2025, UNHCR says. Over 2.4 million Afghans have returned or been deported from Iran and Pakistan since September 2023. Pakistani officials blamed Afghan refugees for militant attacks to justify an expulsion campaign. Mass deportations continue despite UN calls for safe, voluntary and dignified returns.

2. Host-country pressure on Syrians

   Lebanon's displaced-affairs minister announced a plan to forcibly return 15,000 Syrians a month, calling Syria safe. Turkey's Erdoğan vowed to send back a million refugees amid 2023 election pressure. Jordan has avoided mass deportation but increasingly presses for repatriation amid normalization with Damascus. Political pressure for Syrian return intensified across host states even before Assad's fall.

3. Syria's reconstruction push

   The transitional government under al-Sharaa is signing billions in reconstruction deals, with damage estimated at $108 billion and costs up to $345 billion. Gulf states lead investment: Saudi Arabia pledged $6.4 billion, Qatar $4 billion, UAE a 30-year Tartus port concession. The US and EU lifted sanctions and are deepening ties, but pledges have far outpaced actual disbursement, the Global Governance Institute says. Rebuilding is advancing diplomatically while little financing has yet reached returnees.

4. Poverty amid shrinking aid

   Over 70% of Syrian refugees in the region live in poverty, including 80% in Jordan and nine in ten in Lebanon. The World Food Programme halved Syria emergency food aid from 1.3 million to 650,000 people since May 2026. Syria's 2026 humanitarian appeal was under one-third funded; Afghanistan's 2024 plan received just 31%. Shrinking aid is deepening hardship for Syrian and Afghan displaced people rather than easing it.

5. Forced return and nonrefoulement

   Human Rights Watch said Lebanon's 2022 forced-return plan would breach its Convention against Torture obligations. No Syrian claim should be denied until change is shown to be fundamental and durable, HRW says. Host states should maintain temporary protection for Syrians until stability is confirmed. International law requires individual assessment and voluntariness before any return.

6. Unresolved Syrian property rights

   Assad-era Decree 66 and Law No. 10 of 2018, used to strip land claims, remain unrepealed under the transitional government. Jobar residents say they cannot rebuild and would get only half their former floor area under a foreign-backed project. A presidential committee reviewing Decree 66 has issued no durable resolution. Returnees' legal claims to their homes remain unresolved into the second year of transition.

7. Living conditions on return

   Residents returning to Ghadfa, Idlib, have no running water, electricity grid, schools or nearby clinics. Afghan returnees face severe economic hardship and lack of housing and schooling. Households are paying privately for water and pooling funds for teachers' salaries. Return does not yet mean a safe or dignified rebuilding of life for most families.

8. Divided intentions to return

   A UNHCR survey found 80% of Syrian refugees in Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt and Iraq want to return one day, but only 18% within a year. A 2023 study found over 70% did not intend to return within five years. Desire to return coexists with widespread belief that safe return is not yet possible.