Sudan: States, Blocs and Diplomacy

Summary

A US-Saudi-UAE-Egypt "Quad" roadmap for Sudan's war has stalled amid mutual rejections, rival Gulf patronage of the warring sides, and competing peace plans, while Washington has turned to visa pressure on the army chief.

What it argues

1. Quad roadmap launched

   In September 2025 the US, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Egypt proposed a three-month truce, a permanent ceasefire and a nine-month transition to civilian rule. The statement rejected any role for the Muslim Brotherhood, as Washington sanctioned Sudan's Islamist finance minister. Middle East Eye analysis said the Quad excluded the African Union and IGAD from planning, and that its members backed opposing sides of the war. The most prominent external push on Sudan in a year was built around a structural conflict of interest.

2. Mediation whiplash

   The RSF said in November it agreed to the Quad's humanitarian ceasefire, but Burhan rejected the same proposal, accusing the UAE of bias. Hours after Burhan's rejection, the RSF declared its own unilateral three-month truce, which the army did not confirm. The UAE's Reem Al Hashimy accused Burhan of 'consistently obstructive behaviour' in refusing peace overtures. Neither side committed to the same truce at the same time, leaving the proposal unimplemented.

3. Rival plans and persisting splits

   In December Sudan's PM Kamil Idris presented the UN Security Council his own plan for RSF disarmament, calling it 'homemade - not imposed on us', while the US pushed the Quad's rival truce plan. By May 2026 Burhan told Middle East Eye he would talk to the UAE only if it ended RSF support; Bahrain tried to broker contact, and Saudi Arabia expanded outreach to Sudanese civilian groups to counter Emirati influence. In September 2026 the US reportedly withheld Burhan's UN visa to press him toward a 90-day truce, drawing Sudanese outrage and UN concern. A year on, the Quad remains divided and no single ceasefire framework has taken hold.

4. UAE denies arming RSF

   Sudan's army, US lawmakers and researchers say the UAE supports the RSF; the UAE denies it and called a Sudanese case at the International Court of Justice a 'cynical publicity stunt'. Burhan said 'the entire world has witnessed the UAE's support for rebels against the Sudanese state'. Former senior RSF commanders who defected have said the UAE provided military and other support, according to Middle East Eye. The UAE's role in the war remains legally and diplomatically contested.

5. Evidence from el-Fasher's fall

   After the RSF took el-Fasher in October 2025, Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab found satellite evidence consistent with mass graves and body disposal at a mosque and former children's hospital. The UN Human Rights Council's September report accused both the army and RSF of extrajudicial killing, large-scale attacks on civilians and sexual violence. Independent and UN findings document abuses by both warring parties around el-Fasher's capture.

6. US sanctions on Islamist figures

   The US Treasury sanctioned Sudan's finance minister Jibril Ibrahim and the Islamist Baraa Ibn-Malik Brigade allied with the army. The move was stated to aim at limiting Islamist influence in Sudan and curtailing Iran's regional activities. Washington paired its diplomatic roadmap with financial sanctions targeting Islamist networks around the army.

7. El-Fasher's civilian toll

   More than 1,500 people were killed and over 70,000 fled when the RSF seized el-Fasher after an 18-month siege, per the UN and Al Jazeera reporting. The WHO reported the killing of more than 460 patients and staff at a former children's hospital; witnesses described summary executions and mass rape. The fall of el-Fasher produced some of the war's worst documented civilian harm.

8. Displacement and hunger spread

   The war has displaced roughly 14 million people and created what the UN calls the world's largest humanitarian crisis, with famine spreading in parts of Sudan. Renewed fighting in Kordofan displaced tens of thousands more, overwhelming camps such as the one near Kosti that lack tents, food and equipment. Diplomatic stalemate has coincided with worsening displacement and hunger on the ground.