Sudan: Humanitarian Catastrophe

Summary

War between Sudan's army and the RSF paramilitary has split the country, produced the world's largest displacement crisis, and left el-Fasher and now el-Obeid under siege, massacre and famine.

What it argues

1. War splits Sudan

   War began April 2023 when the RSF attacked the capital, Khartoum, and spread nationwide. After el-Fasher's fall the country is effectively partitioned, army-held east against RSF-held west. Sudan's civil war has fractured the country into rival-held territories.

2. El-Fasher falls, talks stall

   RSF seized el-Fasher in October 2025 after an 18-month siege; al-Burhan said SAF withdrew to spare civilians further killing. The Jeddah process and a September 2025 'Quad' roadmap (US, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE) both failed to halt the war; talks stalled further once the city fell. Repeated diplomatic efforts have not stopped the fighting.

3. El-Obeid next target

   RSF has besieged el-Obeid with months of drone strikes, cutting power and water for about 500,000 people. Holding an oil pipeline, army base and gum arabic market, the city's fall would let RSF link Darfur to central Sudan, analysts say. The UN warns el-Obeid risks becoming the next el-Fasher.

4. Genocide findings disputed

   Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab, a UN mission, Amnesty International and the US State Department have each described RSF conduct as genocide or ethnic cleansing, citing summary executions and ethnically motivated killings. RSF leader Hemedti says the group seeks to 'unify Sudan' under 'true democracy' and will hold any perpetrators accountable. Independent investigations describe genocide; the RSF denies such intent.

5. Markets and aid collapse

   Blocked trade routes pushed food prices up 460% in el-Fasher and 300% in el-Obeid; WFP could not truck food into el-Fasher for over a year. A joint WFP-UNICEF convoy was attacked in June 2025, killing five; Sudan's $4.2bn aid plan was only 25% funded by October 2025. Blocked routes and severe underfunding are compounding wartime shortages.

6. Mass displacement

   The war has displaced more than 14 million people, the world's largest displacement crisis. Tawila camp's population more than doubled to over 665,000 by September 2025, far outpacing shelter supplies. Displacement camps are overwhelmed and chronically under-resourced.

7. Refugees flee to Chad

   More than 55,000 Sudanese refugees have fled to Chad this year, with daily crossings rising twentyfold to about 400. UNHCR warns more refugees will risk the journey to Europe without additional funding. Displacement is increasingly spilling beyond Sudan's borders.

8. Famine and disease spread

   Famine was confirmed in Zamzam camp in 2024; a year on, WFP warned El Fasher's trapped population faced starvation, some reduced to eating animal feed. Cholera has infected over 1,180 people and killed at least 20 in Tawila since June 2025. Hunger and disease are compounding the humanitarian emergency.