Sudan: Civilian Forces, Unity and Transition

Summary

Sudan's civilian political camp keeps splintering into rival, armed-aligned blocs even as new dialogue proposals emerge, while the RSF builds a parallel government and grassroots aid networks face repression from both sides.

What it argues

1. RSF declares parallel government

   Tasis Alliance, formed February 2025, declared a "peace and unity" government in Kenya in July 2025, headed by Hemeti with SPLM-N's al-Hilu as deputy. Sudan's Port Sudan government called Kenya's hosting of the announcement a hostile act and threatened to cut diplomatic ties. Analysts Alan Boswell and Anette Hoffmann say the move entrenches de facto partition rather than winning the RSF legitimacy. Sudan now has two governments claiming authority, hardening the war's territorial split.

2. Civilian bloc splinters repeatedly

   Taqaddum split in February 2025 into Tasis, which joined the RSF government, and Somoud, which stayed independent. Somoud and allies declared a Nairobi roadmap in December 2025 as a civilian "third pole," echoing Quad demands. Analyst Hamid Khalafallah says the roadmap still reproduces elite politics without grassroots endorsement. Civilian politics keeps fragmenting rather than consolidating into one credible alternative.

3. Dialogue initiatives compete

   Malik Agar's July 2026 proposal calls for disarming non-state armed groups and restoring state control as a path to elections. A 19-member committee led by Qasim Badri launched an internal-dialogue initiative in August 2026, meeting army chief al-Burhan. Both Somoud and Tasis rejected the Badri initiative, warning it could legitimise al-Burhan's authority. Multiple rival roadmaps compete for legitimacy without yet bringing the warring sides together.

4. Gold and oil underwrite the war

   Kenya's former deputy president Rigathi Gachagua alleged President Ruto profits personally from gold trade with Hemeti; the US sanctioned UAE-based AZ Gold for moving Sudanese gold to Dubai. The SAF and RSF, under South Sudanese mediation, agreed to jointly withdraw from the Heglig oil facility, which an EU official called proof that "money is important; people are not." Resource deals keep flowing between and around the warring parties even as fighting continues.

5. Genocide findings and sanctions

   The US government and human rights groups have determined the RSF committed genocide against non-Arab communities in Darfur. US sanctions on AZ Gold cite its role funnelling Sudanese gold proceeds that benefited the RSF. Legal findings of genocide and sanctions have not stopped the RSF's bid for government status.

6. Legal concessions for talks

   Following the Badri committee's meeting with al-Burhan, authorities issued a decree dropping politically motivated charges against exiled politicians returning for dialogue. Participants were granted temporary legal protections, described by Al Jazeera's opinion piece as limited but important confidence-building steps. Small legal openings are emerging as a precondition for any dialogue to proceed.

7. Civil society under pressure

   Resistance committees evolved into Emergency Response Rooms, with at least 700 operating by October 2024 providing food and health services. Hadhreen says both RSF and army-aligned forces have detained, harassed and killed its volunteers, including one supervisor who died in RSF detention. Grassroots aid networks keep Sudanese communities alive while facing violence from both armies.

8. Neutrality made impossible

   Activist Mohamed Elhadi says both the government and RSF label antiwar voices as enemy sympathisers. Researcher Nada Wanni says civil society will only gain a negotiating seat if it forces its own way in, since "no one is going to invite them." Polarisation leaves genuine civilian voices sidelined from decisions about Sudan's future.