Myanmar: International Law and the Courts

Summary

Myanmar's Rohingya genocide case is being litigated simultaneously at the ICJ, the ICC and Argentina's courts, while Myanmar denies the charges and its military escalates aerial attacks.

What it argues

1. ICJ weighs genocide claim

   Gambia v Myanmar merits hearings ran 12-29 January 2026, the first time the Court examined the substance of the genocide allegation. Myanmar's agent Ko Ko Hlaing told the Court the case rests on "unsubstantiated" fact-finding and that 2017 operations were counter-terrorism, not genocide. Gambia and intervening states argued the UN Fact-Finding Mission's and IIMM's evidence leaves no reasonable inference but genocidal intent. A ruling against Myanmar would be the Court's first finding that a state committed genocide, not merely failed to prevent it.

2. ICC warrant still pending

   The ICC prosecutor requested an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing in November 2024 over deportation and persecution of the Rohingya in 2017. Pre-Trial Chamber I has taken longer to rule than for any other head of state, including Putin, Netanyahu or al-Bashir, Opinio Juris notes. An issued warrant would bind 125 ICC member states to arrest him and could trigger an Interpol Red Notice.

3. Universal jurisdiction spreads

   An Argentine court issued the first public universal-jurisdiction arrest warrants against Myanmar's military in February 2025, naming Min Aung Hlaing and 24 others; a separate Argentine civil case seeks their assets for survivors. Similar complaints are pending in Turkey and the Philippines, while Germany and Indonesia have declined to proceed. The IIMM has shared evidence from over 1,600 sources and 750 testimonies with the ICC and Argentina. Accountability now runs through multiple national courts alongside the ICJ and ICC, with uneven results.

4. Military intensifies aerial war

   The IIMM says Myanmar's military is using more drones and paramotors, and more "double tap" strikes on rescuers. Attacks have hit monasteries, schools and hospitals, including over 600 strikes on religious buildings since the 2021 coup. Strikes escalated ahead of elections completed in January 2026, per Koumjian's report to the Human Rights Council. War crimes continue to intensify even as international courts weigh accountability.

5. Junta's standing at issue

   The military junta, though lacking international recognition as Myanmar's legitimate government, has been allowed by the ICJ to represent the state. Opinio Juris says this leaves open whether members of an "illegitimate" government retain head-of-state immunity in domestic courts. The junta's legal standing before international and domestic courts remains unsettled.

6. Security Council referral urged

   Human Rights Watch and Rohingya rights groups want the UN Security Council to refer Myanmar to the ICC for crimes beyond the Bangladesh border nexus. Opinio Juris says a referral is unlikely given political dynamics among the Council's permanent members. Full ICC jurisdiction over Myanmar's wider crimes depends on Security Council political will that is currently absent.

7. Rohingya displacement continues

   More than 154,000 Rohingya have crossed into Bangladesh since early 2024, joining nearly a million already unable to return, per the IIMM. Rakhine's conflict, now also involving the Arakan Army, has brought killings, detention and displacement affecting Rakhine and other communities too. The humanitarian toll in Rakhine keeps widening as the legal proceedings continue elsewhere.

8. Sexual violence as genocide tactic

   Human Rights Watch and the Global Justice Center say targeted sexual and reproductive violence against Rohingya women aimed to break families and prevent births. Argentina's warrant request similarly treats forced sterilization and gang rape as part of the genocidal campaign. Advocates argue genocide accountability is incomplete without recognising reproductive and sexual violence.