Myanmar: Rakhine Today — the Arakan Army and the Rohingya

Summary

Rohingya in Myanmar's Rakhine State are caught between an Arakan Army that now rules most of the territory but abuses them, and a junta waging an intensifying air war, while international courts weigh unresolved genocide and war-crimes cases.

What it argues

1. Two rival administrations

   The Arakan Army controls roughly 90% of Rakhine, 14 of 17 townships, running the Arakan People's Revolutionary Government. The junta's Rakhine State Government holds only Sittwe, Kyaukphyu and part of Ann; Min Aung Hlaing's coup and disputed 2025–26 elections were later followed by Ye Win Oo replacing him as commander-in-chief in March 2026. Rakhine State has two governments, and neither junta leadership change has settled the war.

2. Arakan Army seeks recognition

   AA chief Twan Mrat Naing says talks with the junta collapsed over its demand that AA forces withdraw to pre-2023 positions. A Diplomat commentary argues outside powers should condition any recognition of AA rule on Rohingya rights and repatriation. The Arakan Army wants international standing but faces conditions tied to its record.

3. Escalating airstrikes

   The junta has intensified airstrikes on Rakhine civilian areas, including markets, as it loses townships to the Arakan Army. Nearly half a million people are displaced in Rakhine State by the fighting. Territorial losses have been followed by heavier bombing of civilians.

4. International cases unresolved

   The ICJ heard merits in The Gambia's genocide case against Myanmar in January 2026; judgment is still pending. The ICC prosecutor sought an arrest warrant for Min Aung Hlaing in November 2024; no ruling has been made public. Years-long international legal efforts over the Rohingya remain without a verdict.

5. Hoyyar Siri massacre

   Human Rights Watch found Arakan Army fighters killed over 170 Rohingya, including about 90 children, in Buthidaung on 2 May 2024. Survivors remain unable to return home two years later; the Arakan Army denies responsibility. A documented massacre by the Arakan Army remains without redress for victims.

6. Airstrikes called war crimes

   A 28 September 2026 junta airstrike on a Kyauktaw market killed at least 33–50 civilians, per Al Jazeera and Fortify Rights. Fortify Rights and the ULA both called the attack a war crime; the junta made no immediate comment. Rights groups and the Arakan Army itself describe the junta's bombing campaign as unlawful.

7. Land seized, labor forced

   BHRN documented the Arakan Army conscripting over 300 Rohingya since May 2026 to build settlements for incoming Rakhine families on confiscated Rohingya land. Earlier Human Rights Watch interviews describe AA restrictions on farming, fishing and movement that left Rohingya facing extreme food shortages. Rohingya land and labor are being used to resettle other communities in Rakhine.

8. Identity denied, refugees fleeing

   Arakan Army leader Twan Mrat Naing has called Rohingya 'Bengalis'; both the junta and the AA have forcibly recruited Rohingya fighters. Bangladesh's camps hold over 1.2 million Rohingya refugees facing abduction and aid cuts; more than 820 died in 2026 boat crossings toward Malaysia. Denied recognition at home, Rohingya face worsening danger in flight.