The Chessboard
Myanmar Power
The power that keeps the Rohingya stateless, in camps and under attack, and the power that can end it — drawn from the Myanmar opinions and the genocide goals built on them.
Power for the Rohingya's safety, return and justice
Junta's genocide endures on foreign recognition and aid cuts as courts close in
Myanmar's military still has the power to block the Rohingya's return. It turned a rigged vote into a presidency for coup leader Min Aung Hlaing, keeps denying the Rohingya citizenship and fights the Arakan Army across Rakhine, trapping the Rohingya between them. Neighbouring and allied governments keep receiving him and expanding trade, while ASEAN refuses to certify his election yet treats the junta as Myanmar's government. The strongest pressure against the military comes from the courts, though they cannot make Rakhine safe on their own. Collapsing aid and deportations are pushing refugees onto deadlier seas, so protection and a return with full rights depend on states refusing complicity and funding refuge.
Key points
- The perpetrator's grip. Statelessness imposed since 1982 and a junta presidency won through a vote without the NLD keep the military, the perpetrator, in command of return.
- No safe Rakhine. With the Arakan Army controlling most of Rakhine and still fighting the military, safe return is impossible, yet Malaysia has begun deportations regardless.
- Courts as the strongest lever. The Gambia's ICJ case awaits a verdict, the ICC seeks Min Aung Hlaing's arrest, and Timor-Leste and the UN mechanism add jurisdiction and evidence.
- Recognition sustains the junta. Visits to China, Russia, India and Thailand, and Cambodia's investment and military pacts, give the junta a legitimacy that withheld recognition must counter.
- A regime under strain. Close to $100 billion lost since the coup and control of only a fifth to a third of the territory leave the junta exposed to pressure.
- Aid as a lifeline. Underfunded appeals and food vouchers cut to as little as $6-8 a month are driving kidnappings, trafficking and deadlier crossings, making funding a lifeline.
- Duties of the Muslim world. Muslim states must refuse recognition, deportations and complicit trade; communities should fund camps through zakat (almsgiving) and waqf (endowments); Rohingya must shape return.
Drawn from
- Myanmar: The Refugees — Camps, Boats and ReturnNine years after fleeing Myanmar's 2017 crackdown, more than a million Rohingya remain in Bangladesh camps as Malaysia starts deporting some back, sea crossings turn deadlier, and funding cuts strip away aid.
- Myanmar: States, Blocs and DiplomacyThe junta's controlled election made Min Aung Hlaing president; UN experts call it a sham, ASEAN won't certify it yet still deals with the junta as Myanmar's government, and legal cases advance even as regional states keep receiving him.
