The Chessboard

India's persecution of Muslims

As of October 2026, India's government, its ruling Hindu nationalist movement and the mobs it emboldens persecute Muslims across India — not only in Kashmir, which lost its autonomy in 2019 — through citizenship laws, demolitions, expulsions and violence; genocide monitors warn, though no court or government has found genocide. Choose a future scenario to see where each state stands, and choose it again to return to today.

Future scenarios
Yemen — Says little; ties and trade as usualVietnam — Says little; ties and trade as usualUzbekistan — Says little; ties and trade as usualUnited Arab Emirates — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsTurkmenistan — Says little; ties and trade as usualTurkey — Speaks out on India's Muslims or Kashmir; keeps tiesThailand — Says little; ties and trade as usualTajikistan — Says little; ties and trade as usualSyria — Says little; ties and trade as usualSudan — Says little; ties and trade as usualSri Lanka — Says little; ties and trade as usualSomalia — Says little; ties and trade as usualSomaliland — Says little; ties and trade as usualSingapore — Says little; ties and trade as usualSaudi Arabia — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsQatar — Says little; ties and trade as usualPakistan — Contests Kashmir; cut trade and ties with IndiaOman — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsNepal — Says little; ties and trade as usualMalaysia — Says little; ties and trade as usualLebanon — Says little; ties and trade as usualLaos — Says little; ties and trade as usualKyrgyzstan — Says little; ties and trade as usualKuwait — Says little; ties and trade as usualKenya — Says little; ties and trade as usualJordan — Says little; ties and trade as usualIraq — Says little; ties and trade as usualIran — Speaks out on India's Muslims or Kashmir; keeps tiesIndonesia — Says little; ties and trade as usualIndia — India — the persecuting stateEthiopia — Says little; ties and trade as usualEritrea — Says little; ties and trade as usualEgypt — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsDjibouti — Says little; ties and trade as usualChina — Great power balancing — courts India, some words on rights or KashmirCambodia — Says little; ties and trade as usualMyanmar — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsBhutan — Says little; ties and trade as usualBangladesh — Resists the people India pushes across its borderBahrain — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsAzerbaijan — Speaks out on India's Muslims or Kashmir; keeps tiesArmenia — Says little; ties and trade as usualAfghanistan — Close partner of India; silent on its MuslimsSiachen Glacier — Says little; ties and trade as usualYemenUzbekistanUAETurkeySri LankaSaudi ArabiaQatarPakistanOmanNepalMalaysiaKuwaitIraqIranIndonesiaIndiaChinaMyanmarBhutanBangladeshBahrainAzerbaijanAfghanistanKashmir

← Shields India's policyFor India's Muslims →

  1. India — the persecuting state
  2. Arms India or backs its line on Kashmir
  3. Close partner, silent on India's Muslims
  4. Great power balancing — ties with India, some words
  5. Says little; ties as usual
  6. Speaks out on India's Muslims or Kashmir
  7. Resists India's expulsions into its territory
  8. Contests Kashmir; cut trade and ties with India

India's Muslims and the people of Kashmir

The powers today

Who stands where

India's government and ruling Hindu nationalist movement persecute its Muslims while its Gulf partners stay silent and the great powers court it; Pakistan, Turkey, Iran and Bangladesh object, few act.

Tap a state on the map, or a card below, for what it does.

The main actors, from most to least support for India's Muslims — why they stand where they do

  • Historical

    • Chose India at Partition (1947): equal citizens of a secular republic
    • Kashmir's accession (1947) and the promised plebiscite
    • Riots: Nellie 1983, Bombay 1992–93, Gujarat 2002, Delhi 2020
    • The Babri Masjid demolished (1992)

    Today

    • Equal citizenship and the vote
    • Safety from mobs, police and bulldozers
    • Mosques, waqf (endowments) and personal law
    • Kashmir: statehood, rights, release of detainees

    Capacity

    Political

    • About 200 million people, 14% of India
    • 24 of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (2024); none in the ruling party
    • Kashmir's elected government without statehood

    Economic

    • Poorer than average (Sachar Committee, 2006)
    • Waqf lands under new state control

    Military

    • None

    Memberships

    Military

    • None

    Economic

    • None

    Other bodies

    • Represented by Indian bodies: Jamiat Ulama-i-Hind, the All India Muslim Personal Law Board

  • Historical

    • Partition and the claim to Kashmir
    • Wars of 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999
    • UN resolutions for a plebiscite

    Today

    • Kashmir as national cause
    • The army's standing at home
    • Water: the Indus Waters Treaty held 'in abeyance'
    • Saudi, Turkish and Chinese backing

    Capacity

    Political

    • Army-led 'hybrid' rule
    • Kashmir's advocate at the UN and the OIC
    • Defence pacts with Saudi Arabia (2025) and Turkey (2026)

    Economic

    • GDP about $375 billion
    • IMF programme
    • Dependent on the Indus waters

    Military

    • About 650,000 active forces
    • Nuclear arsenal (about 170 warheads)
    • Chinese jets, Turkish drones

    Memberships

    Military

    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
    • Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (2026)
    • Major non-NATO ally of the US (2004)

    Economic

    • SAARC
    • Economic Cooperation Organisation
    • China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

    Other bodies

    • OIC (Kashmir contact group)
    • Commonwealth

  • Historical

    • Independence (1971) with India's help
    • Sheikh Hasina's close ties with Delhi (2009–24)

    Today

    • The push-ins of people India calls 'Bangladeshis'
    • Hasina's extradition
    • Killings on the border, shared rivers
    • The BNP's distance from Delhi

    Capacity

    Political

    • BNP government since February 2026
    • Hasina sentenced to death in absentia (November 2025); sheltered in India

    Economic

    • GDP about $450 billion
    • Garment exports; trade through India

    Military

    • Border Guard Bangladesh resists push-ins

    Memberships

    Military

    • None

    Economic

    • SAARC
    • BIMSTEC

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Commonwealth
    • Non-Aligned Movement
    • ICC

  • Historical

    • India's Muslims backed the Ottoman caliphate (the Khilafat movement, 1919–24)
    • Alliance with Pakistan

    Today

    • Erdoğan's claim to Muslim leadership
    • Defence pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia (2026)
    • Arms exports to Pakistan

    Capacity

    Political

    • NATO member
    • OIC Kashmir contact group

    Economic

    • GDP about $1.3 trillion
    • Indian boycott since May 2025

    Military

    • NATO's second-largest army
    • Drone industry; arms to Pakistan

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (2026)

    Economic

    • G20
    • OECD
    • EU Customs Union
    • D-8

    Other bodies

    • OIC (Kashmir contact group)
    • Organisation of Turkic States

  • Historical

    • Persian and Shia ties to India
    • 1979: the revolution as defender of Muslims

    Today

    • Chabahar port and Indian trade
    • War with Israel and the US
    • Standing in the Muslim world

    Capacity

    Political

    • Mojtaba Khamenei supreme leader since March 2026
    • At war with Israel and the US

    Economic

    • GDP about $400 billion
    • Under US sanctions and blockade
    • Chabahar port with India

    Military

    • Missile and drone arsenal
    • Revolutionary Guard

    Memberships

    Military

    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

    Economic

    • BRICS
    • OPEC
    • Economic Cooperation Organisation

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Non-Aligned Movement

  • Historical

    • The 1962 war with India
    • 'All-weather' alliance with Pakistan
    • Holds Aksai Chin

    Today

    • Rivalry with India
    • The China–Pakistan corridor through Pakistan-administered Kashmir
    • Its claim in Ladakh

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto
    • Raised Kashmir at the Council (2019)

    Economic

    • GDP about $19 trillion
    • India's largest source of imports

    Military

    • Holds Aksai Chin
    • About 80% of Pakistan's arms imports

    Memberships

    Military

    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • BRICS
    • G20
    • Belt and Road

    Other bodies

    • Not in the OIC; persecutes its own Uyghurs

  • Historical

    • Cold War tilt to Pakistan
    • Visa ban on Modi over Gujarat 2002 (2005–14)

    Today

    • India as counterweight to China (the Quad)
    • Trade and tariffs
    • The Indian-American diaspora
    • Arms sales

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto
    • USCIRF urges a CPC designation; the State Department declines

    Economic

    • GDP about $29 trillion
    • Trade deal with India (February 2026)
    • Magnitsky sanctions and visa bans

    Military

    • Quad partner
    • Major arms seller to India

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • Quad
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • G7
    • G20
    • I2U2 and IMEC

    Other bodies

    • USCIRF (advisory commission)

  • Historical

    • Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
    • Long patron of Pakistan

    Today

    • India as a top oil buyer
    • Vision 2030 investment
    • Over 2 million Indian workers
    • Defence pacts with Pakistan and Turkey

    Capacity

    Political

    • Religious standing; OIC host
    • Mediated in May 2025

    Economic

    • GDP about $1.1 trillion
    • Major oil supplier to India
    • Over 2 million Indian workers

    Military

    • Defence pacts with Pakistan and Turkey
    • US and UK weapons

    Memberships

    Military

    • Mecca Joint Defence Agreement (2026)
    • Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (leader)

    Economic

    • G20
    • OPEC+ (leader)
    • Gulf Cooperation Council

    Other bodies

    • OIC (host; Kashmir contact group)
    • Arab League

  • Historical

    • Indian traders and workers for a century

    Today

    • Trade above $100 billion
    • About 3.5 million Indian residents
    • Hostility to Islamist movements
    • The India–Middle East–Europe corridor

    Capacity

    Political

    • Gave Modi the Order of Zayed (2019)
    • Hostile to Islamist movements

    Economic

    • Trade with India $101 billion (2025–26)
    • Comprehensive trade agreement (2022)
    • Remittances of 3.5 million Indians

    Military

    • Strategic defence partnership with India in preparation (2026)

    Memberships

    Military

    • Major defence partner of the US (2024)

    Economic

    • BRICS (2024)
    • Gulf Cooperation Council
    • OPEC
    • I2U2 and IMEC

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Arab League
    • Abraham Accords

  • Historical

    • Soviet vetoes on Kashmir (1957, 1962)
    • India's arms supplier since the 1960s

    Today

    • Oil and arms sales
    • India's neutrality on Ukraine

  • Historical

    • Full relations only from 1992
    • Hindu nationalists' admiration for Zionism, scholars note

    Today

    • India as a top arms buyer
    • Modi–Netanyahu affinity
    • A shared 'counter-terror' framing

  • Historical

    • Savarkar's Hindutva ('Hindu-ness', 1923): India as a Hindu nation
    • The RSS (1925) and Gandhi's murder by a former member (1948)
    • Partition and its massacres
    • Gujarat 2002 under Modi as chief minister

    Today

    • The Hindu rashtra (Hindu state)
    • Votes won by casting Muslims as 'infiltrators', critics say
    • Kashmir 'fully integrated'
    • Rivalry with Pakistan; 'counter-terror' framing

    Capacity

    Political

    • Modi's third term (2024); BJP rules most states
    • Rejects all outside comment as interference
    • Hosted the BRICS summit (2026)

    Economic

    • GDP about $4 trillion
    • Market for Gulf oil and labour
    • Trade deals with the UAE, the UK, the EU and the US

    Military

    • About 1.5 million active forces
    • Nuclear arsenal (about 180 warheads)
    • Several hundred thousand troops and police in Jammu and Kashmir

    Memberships

    Military

    • Quad
    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

    Economic

    • G20
    • BRICS (2026 chair)
    • BIMSTEC
    • SAARC
    • I2U2 and IMEC

    Other bodies

    • Commonwealth
    • Non-Aligned Movement
    • Not in the ICC

Beyond the map