The Chessboard

The occupation of Palestine

The region and the powers around Palestine, and where each stands towards Palestine and Israel, as of October 2026. Choose a future scenario to see where each power stands on it; choose it again to return to today.

Future scenarios
Yemen — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyUzbekistan — Recognises PalestineIsle of Man — Recognises PalestineUnited Kingdom — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersUnited Arab Emirates — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateUkraine — Recognises PalestineTurkmenistan — Recognises PalestineTurkey — Cut trade or ties with Israel over GazaTunisia — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyTogo — Recognises PalestineTajikistan — Recognises PalestineSyria — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacySwitzerland — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleSweden — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersS. Sudan — Recognises PalestineSudan — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateSpain — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersSomalia — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacySomaliland — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacySlovakia — Recognises PalestineSlovenia — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersSierra Leone — Recognises PalestineSerbia — Recognises PalestineSenegal — Recognises PalestineSaudi Arabia — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyRussia — Recognises Palestine, keeps close ties with IsraelRomania — Recognises PalestineQatar — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyPortugal — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersPoland — Recognises PalestinePakistan — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyOman — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyNigeria — Recognises PalestineNiger — Recognises PalestineNetherlands — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleMorocco — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateWestern Sahara — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateMontenegro — Recognises PalestineMoldova — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleMauritania — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyMalta — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersMali — Recognises PalestineNorth Macedonia — Recognises PalestineLuxembourg — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersLithuania — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleLibya — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyLiberia — Recognises PalestineLebanon — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyLatvia — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleKyrgyzstan — Recognises PalestineKuwait — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyKosovo — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleKazakhstan — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateJordan — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateItaly — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleIsrael — Israel — the occupying powerPalestine — Palestine — occupiedIreland — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersIraq — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyIran — Arms the armed resistance; at war with IsraelIndia — Recognises Palestine, keeps close ties with IsraelHungary — Israel's main backers — arms, money or diplomatic coverGuinea — Recognises PalestineGreece — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleGhana — Recognises PalestineGermany — Israel's main backers — arms, money or diplomatic coverGeorgia — Recognises PalestineFrance — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersEthiopia — Recognises PalestineEstonia — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleEritrea — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleEgypt — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateDjibouti — Recognises PalestineDenmark — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleCzechia — Israel's main backers — arms, money or diplomatic coverN. Cyprus — Recognises PalestineCyprus — Recognises PalestineCroatia — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleCôte d'Ivoire — Recognises PalestineChad — Recognises PalestineCentral African Rep. — Recognises PalestineCameroon — Recognises PalestineBurkina Faso — Recognises PalestineBulgaria — Recognises PalestineBosnia and Herz. — Recognises PalestineBenin — Recognises PalestineBelgium — Western states that recognised Palestine and curb arms, trade or settlersBelarus — Recognises PalestineBahrain — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateAzerbaijan — Peace or normalisation with Israel; backs a Palestinian stateAustria — Has not recognised Palestine; backs two states in principleArmenia — Recognises PalestineAndorra — Recognises PalestineAlgeria — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyAlbania — Recognises PalestineAfghanistan — No relations with Israel; backs the Palestinians by diplomacyYemenUKUAEUkraineTurkeySyriaSwedenSudanSpainSaudi ArabiaRussiaQatarPolandPakistanOmanMoroccoLibyaLebanonKazakhstanJordanItalyIsraelIrelandIraqIranHungaryGreeceGermanyFranceEgyptAzerbaijanAlgeriaPalestine

← For IsraelFor Palestine →

  1. Israel — the occupier
  2. Backs Israel with arms, money or diplomatic cover
  3. Leans to Israel — has not recognised Palestine
  4. Recognises Palestine but keeps close ties with Israel
  5. Recognises Palestine
  6. Recognises Palestine and acts — curbs on arms, trade or settlers
  7. Refuses all relations with Israel
  8. Broke trade or ties with Israel, or took it to court
  9. Arms the armed resistance

Palestine — occupied

The powers today

Who stands where

Israel holds the land with US and German backing; most of the world recognises Palestine, few act.

Tap a state on the map, or a card below, for what it does.

The main actors, from most to least support for Palestine — why they stand where they do

  • Historical

    • The Nakba and the right of return
    • Occupation since 1967
    • Oslo's promised state never came

    Today

    • Survival in Gaza
    • End of siege, occupation and settlements
    • Prisoners' release
    • Statehood (PA); keeping its arms (Hamas)

    Capacity

    Political

    • UN observer state, 157 recognitions
    • ICJ and ICC cases
    • Divided: PA and Hamas

    Economic

    • Borders and revenues controlled by Israel
    • Gaza's economy destroyed
    • Aid-dependent

    Military

    • No army; PA police only
    • Hamas's armed wing much degraded

    Memberships

    Military

    • None

    Economic

    • Group of 77
    • Union for the Mediterranean

    Other bodies

    • UN observer state
    • Arab League
    • OIC
    • Non-Aligned Movement
    • ICC (since 2015)

  • Historical

    • The Shah's alliance with Israel
    • 1979 revolution: Palestine as identity
    • Founded Hezbollah

    Today

    • Regime survival
    • Deterrence through the 'axis'
    • Hormuz as leverage
    • Standing in the Muslim world

    Capacity

    Political

    • Leads the 'axis'
    • Supreme Leader killed (February 2026)
    • Isolated, under sanctions

    Economic

    • GDP about $400 billion
    • Oil exports under US blockade
    • Hormuz chokepoint

    Military

    • Largest missile and drone arsenal in the region
    • Revolutionary Guard
    • Nuclear sites bombed

    Memberships

    Military

    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (2023)
    • Leads the 'axis of resistance' (informal)

    Economic

    • BRICS (2024)
    • OPEC
    • Economic Cooperation Organisation

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Non-Aligned Movement

  • Historical

    • 1948 refugees
    • Israel's occupation (1982–2000)
    • Birth of Hezbollah

    Today

    • Hezbollah's arms
    • Israeli withdrawal from the south

    Capacity

    Political

    • Hezbollah in parliament and government
    • A weak state

    Economic

    • Lebanon's economy collapsed since 2019
    • Iranian funding

    Military

    • Tens of thousands of fighters
    • Rocket arsenal and leadership hit hard since 2024

    Memberships

    Military

    • Hezbollah: the 'axis of resistance' (informal)

    Economic

    • Greater Arab Free Trade Area

    Other bodies

    • Lebanon: Arab League, OIC, Francophonie

  • Historical

    • 'Death to America, death to Israel'
    • War since 2014

    Today

    • Solidarity with Gaza
    • Alliance with Iran
    • Standing at home

    Capacity

    Political

    • Rule Sanaa and most of Yemen's people
    • Unrecognised

    Economic

    • One of the world's poorest
    • Ports and customs revenue

    Military

    • Missiles and drones reaching Israel and Riyadh
    • Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb coast

    Memberships

    Military

    • Houthis: the 'axis of resistance' (informal)

    Economic

    • None (Houthis); Yemen: Greater Arab Free Trade Area

    Other bodies

    • Yemen's government: Arab League, OIC

  • Historical

    • Ottoman Palestine
    • First Muslim state to recognise Israel
    • Mavi Marmara rupture (2010)

    Today

    • Erdoğan's Muslim leadership claim
    • Ties with Hamas
    • Rivalry with Israel in Syria

    Capacity

    Political

    • NATO member
    • Gaza ceasefire guarantor
    • On the Board of Peace's executive

    Economic

    • GDP about $1.3 trillion
    • High inflation
    • Trade ban on Israel

    Military

    • NATO's second-largest army
    • Drone industry
    • Forces in Syria

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • SCO dialogue partner

    Economic

    • G20
    • OECD
    • EU Customs Union
    • D-8

    Other bodies

    • Council of Europe
    • OIC
    • Organisation of Turkic States
    • EU candidate

  • Historical

    • Israeli trade office (1996–2009)
    • Brotherhood ties

    Today

    • Hosts al-Udeid US base
    • Mediator's influence
    • Al Jazeera

    Capacity

    Political

    • Hosts Hamas's political office
    • Indispensable mediator
    • Al Jazeera

    Economic

    • LNG giant
    • Sovereign fund about $500 billion

    Military

    • Small forces
    • Protected by the US base at al-Udeid

    Memberships

    Military

    • Major non-NATO ally of the US (2022)
    • GCC joint command

    Economic

    • Gulf Cooperation Council
    • Gas Exporting Countries Forum (host)

    Other bodies

    • Arab League
    • OIC

  • Historical

    • Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques
    • 1973 oil embargo
    • Arab Peace Initiative (2002)

    Today

    • US defence pact
    • Vision 2030 stability
    • Rivalry with Iran
    • Religious legitimacy

    Capacity

    Political

    • Religious standing in the Muslim world
    • OPEC leader
    • Normalisation as a bargaining card

    Economic

    • GDP about $1.1 trillion
    • Sovereign fund near $1 trillion
    • Oil price power

    Military

    • Defence budget about $75 billion
    • US and UK weapons
    • Exposed to Houthi missiles

    Memberships

    Military

    • GCC joint command
    • Islamic Military Counter Terrorism Coalition (leader)
    • SCO dialogue partner

    Economic

    • G20
    • OPEC and OPEC+ (leader)
    • Gulf Cooperation Council
    • Invited to BRICS

    Other bodies

    • Arab League
    • OIC (host)

  • Historical

    • Four wars with Israel
    • Sinai regained (1979)
    • US military aid

    Today

    • No Gazans in Sinai
    • Border security
    • Israeli gas, Gulf money
    • Hostility to the Brotherhood

    Capacity

    Political

    • Gatekeeper of Rafah
    • Chief mediator
    • Arab League host

    Economic

    • GDP about $390 billion
    • IMF and Gulf bail-outs
    • Suez revenue cut by Red Sea attacks

    Military

    • Largest Arab army (about 440,000)
    • US-supplied

    Memberships

    Military

    • Major non-NATO ally of the US (1989)

    Economic

    • BRICS (2024)
    • COMESA
    • African Continental Free Trade Area

    Other bodies

    • Arab League (host)
    • African Union
    • OIC
    • Non-Aligned Movement

  • Historical

    • First to recognise Israel (1948)
    • Cold War ally against Soviet-armed Arabs
    • Pro-Israel lobby and Christian Zionists

    Today

    • Israel as anchor of US power
    • Stopping an Iranian bomb
    • Gulf oil and shipping lanes
    • Saudi normalisation
    • Midterm politics

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto
    • Leads the Board of Peace
    • Patron of Israel and the Gulf

    Economic

    • GDP about $29 trillion
    • The dollar and sanctions

    Military

    • Defence budget near $900 billion
    • Bases across the Gulf; Fifth Fleet in Bahrain
    • Carrier groups and blockade of Iran's ports

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • Five Eyes
    • AUKUS
    • Quad
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • G7
    • G20
    • OECD
    • USMCA
    • I2U2 and IMEC (with Israel, India, the Gulf)

    Other bodies

    • Board of Peace (chair)

  • Historical

    • Zionism: a Jewish state in the land
    • Refuge after the Holocaust
    • 1948: Palestinians expelled, return refused
    • 1967: 'Judea and Samaria' as a religious mission

    Today

    • Security control from river to sea
    • Destroy Hamas, recover the hostages
    • Break Iran and its allies
    • Settler parties' annexation drive
    • Netanyahu's survival, critics say

    Capacity

    Political

    • US veto cover at the UN
    • Elections 27 October 2026
    • Leaders under ICC warrant

    Economic

    • GDP about $540 billion
    • High-tech exports
    • US aid $3.8 billion a year

    Military

    • About 170,000 active, 465,000 reserves
    • Undeclared nuclear arsenal (about 90 warheads)
    • Air superiority; Iron Dome and Arrow

    Memberships

    Military

    • Major non-NATO ally of the US (1987)
    • In US Central Command since 2021
    • NATO Mediterranean Dialogue

    Economic

    • OECD (2010)
    • EU Association Agreement
    • I2U2 and IMEC

    Other bodies

    • Abraham Accords
    • Negev Forum

Beyond the map