The Chessboard

The genocide of the Rohingya

Who stands where on the genocide of the Rohingya, as of October 2026: the states that arm and shield Myanmar's military, those that engage it, and those that shelter the refugees or take Myanmar to court. Choose a future scenario to see where each state stands on it, and choose it again to return to today.

Future scenarios
Vietnam — Engages the regime — visits, election observers, trade; words for the RohingyaUzbekistan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionTurkmenistan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionTimor-Leste — On record for the Rohingya; little actionThailand — Engages the regime — visits, election observers, trade; words for the RohingyaTajikistan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionTaiwan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionSri Lanka — On record for the Rohingya; little actionSouth Korea — On record for the Rohingya; little actionSingapore — On record for the Rohingya; little actionPhilippines — On record for the Rohingya; little actionPakistan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionNorth Korea — On record for the Rohingya; little actionNepal — On record for the Rohingya; little actionMalaysia — Hosts large numbers of Rohingya refugeesLaos — Engages the regime — visits, election observers, trade; words for the RohingyaJapan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionIran — On record for the Rohingya; little actionIndonesia — On record for the Rohingya; little actionIndia — Arms the junta or sends Rohingya back to it; courts it for strategic tiesChina — Arms the junta and shields it at the UNHong Kong — On record for the Rohingya; little actionCambodia — Engages the regime — visits, election observers, trade; words for the RohingyaMyanmar — Myanmar's military regime — the perpetratorBrunei — On record for the Rohingya; little actionBhutan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionBangladesh — Shelters the Rohingya — more than a million refugeesAfghanistan — On record for the Rohingya; little actionSiachen Glacier — On record for the Rohingya; little actionVietnamThailandTaiwanSri LankaS. KoreaSingaporePhilippinesPakistanNepalMalaysiaLaosJapanIndonesiaIndiaChinaCambodiaMyanmarBruneiBangladeshAfghanistanRakhine & Cox's Bazar

← For the juntaFor the Rohingya →

  1. Myanmar's military — the perpetrator
  2. Arms the junta and shields it at the UN
  3. Arms the junta or deports Rohingya to it
  4. Engages the regime; words for the Rohingya
  5. On record for the Rohingya; little action
  6. Acts — sanctions the junta or joined the ICJ case
  7. Hosts large numbers of Rohingya refugees
  8. Took Myanmar to court
  9. Shelters more than a million Rohingya

The Rohingya — stateless, expelled and confined

The powers today

Who stands where

Myanmar's military drove the Rohingya out with Chinese and Russian arms and cover; Bangladesh shelters more than a million and The Gambia took Myanmar to court, while most states give words and shrinking aid.

Tap a state on the map, or a card below, for what it does.

The main actors, from most to least support for the Rohingya — why they stand where they do

  • Historical

    • Muslims of Arakan for centuries
    • Citizenship stripped by the 1982 law
    • Expelled in 1978, 1991–92 and 2017
    • Confined to camps since 2012

    Today

    • Survival in the camps and in Rakhine
    • Citizenship and the name 'Rohingya'
    • Return to their own villages
    • Justice at the ICJ, the ICC and in Argentina

    Capacity

    Political

    • Stateless; no seat at the UN
    • Divided organisations at home and abroad
    • Cases at the ICJ, ICC and in Argentina

    Economic

    • Aid-dependent in the camps
    • Barred from work in Bangladesh and much of Rakhine

    Military

    • No army; ARSA and RSO armed groups accused of coercion in the camps

    Memberships

    Military

    • None

    Economic

    • None

    Other bodies

    • Stateless — no seat at the UN
    • Arakan Rohingya National Council (2025) and other bodies

  • Historical

    • Took in refugees in 1978, 1991–92 and 2017
    • Muslim-majority neighbour
    • Its own 1971 refugee memory

    Today

    • Return of the refugees
    • Border security and the Arakan Army
    • Donor money for the camps
    • Crime and armed groups in the camps

    Capacity

    Political

    • ICC member — the Court's jurisdiction
    • OIC voice
    • New BNP government (February 2026)

    Economic

    • GDP about $450 billion
    • Garment exports
    • Camps costlier than the aid

    Military

    • About 160,000 active
    • Border Guard on the Naf river

    Memberships

    Military

    • A leading UN peacekeeping contributor

    Economic

    • BIMSTEC
    • SAARC
    • D-8

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Commonwealth
    • ICC (since 2010)

  • Historical

    • Its justice minister saw the camps (2018)
    • OIC mandate
    • Its own reckoning after Jammeh's rule

    Today

    • Precedent under the Genocide Convention
    • OIC backing and funds
    • International standing

    Capacity

    Political

    • The genocide case at the ICJ
    • OIC mandate

    Economic

    • GDP about $2.5 billion
    • Case funded through the OIC

    Military

    • Small forces

    Memberships

    Military

    • ECOWAS standby force

    Economic

    • ECOWAS

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • African Union
    • Commonwealth
    • ICC

  • Historical

    • Muslim solidarity
    • Haven for Rohingya boats since the 1990s

    Today

    • Leadership in ASEAN
    • Pressure at home to cut refugee numbers
    • Islamic-party politics

    Capacity

    Political

    • ASEAN chair in 2025
    • Refused to certify the election
    • OIC member

    Economic

    • GDP about $420 billion

    Military

    • Navy patrols the Andaman Sea and Malacca Strait

    Memberships

    Military

    • Five Power Defence Arrangements

    Economic

    • ASEAN
    • BRICS partner (2025)
    • D-8

    Other bodies

    • OIC
    • Commonwealth

  • Historical

    • Ruled Burma (1824–1948)
    • Colonial census lines still argued over

    Today

    • Security Council penholder
    • Human-rights diplomacy
    • Sanctions

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council permanent member and penholder on Myanmar
    • Intervener in the ICJ case

    Economic

    • Sanctions
    • Aid donor

    Military

    • No forces engaged

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • Five Power Defence Arrangements
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • G7
    • G20

    Other bodies

    • Commonwealth
    • ICC

  • Historical

    • Sanctions after 1988 and 2021
    • Genocide determination (2022)
    • BURMA Act (2022)

    Today

    • Rare earths beyond China, critics say
    • Rivalry with China
    • Aid cuts

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto
    • Genocide determination (2022)

    Economic

    • GDP about $29 trillion
    • The dollar and sanctions
    • Largest donor to the camps until 2025

    Military

    • No forces engaged

    Memberships

    Military

    • NATO
    • Quad
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • G7
    • G20

    Other bodies

    • Left the UN Human Rights Council (2025)

  • Historical

    • A long border and refugee camps
    • Army-to-army ties

    Today

    • Gas and border trade
    • Scam centres and refugees on the border
    • Stability over democracy

    Capacity

    Political

    • Hosts ASEAN's meetings with the regime
    • A 2,400 km border

    Economic

    • GDP about $530 billion
    • Buys Myanmar's gas

    Military

    • Army ties with the Tatmadaw

    Memberships

    Military

    • Major non-NATO ally of the US (2003)

    Economic

    • ASEAN
    • BIMSTEC
    • BRICS partner (2025)

    Other bodies

    • Not an ICC member

  • Historical

    • British India's eastern frontier
    • Northeast insurgents sheltering in Myanmar

    Today

    • Kaladan corridor through Rakhine
    • Competing with China
    • Northeast border security
    • Hostility to Rohingya migrants, critics say

    Capacity

    Political

    • Hosted Min Aung Hlaing (2026)
    • Abstained on resolution 2669 (2022)

    Economic

    • GDP about $3.9 trillion
    • Kaladan corridor and trilateral highway

    Military

    • Arms supplier
    • A 1,600 km border

    Memberships

    Military

    • Quad
    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

    Economic

    • BRICS
    • BIMSTEC
    • G20

    Other bodies

    • Commonwealth
    • Not an ICC member

  • Historical

    • Soviet-era ties
    • Training of Myanmar officers

    Today

    • Arms sales
    • A partner outside the West
    • Nuclear and port projects

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto

    Economic

    • Arms, nuclear and port deals

    Military

    • The largest arms supplier
    • TIGER-2026 joint exercise

    Memberships

    Military

    • CSTO
    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • BRICS
    • Eurasian Economic Union

    Other bodies

    • Not an ICC member

  • Historical

    • 'Pauk-phaw' (kinsfolk) ties
    • Shielded the junta before 2011

    Today

    • Kyaukphyu port and pipelines to the Indian Ocean
    • Border stability and scam centres
    • Rare earths
    • Keeping the West out

    Capacity

    Political

    • Security Council veto
    • Brokers ceasefires on its border

    Economic

    • GDP about $18.7 trillion
    • Largest trading partner and investor
    • Kyaukphyu port and pipelines

    Military

    • Jets, drones and arms

    Memberships

    Military

    • Shanghai Cooperation Organisation
    • Security Council permanent member

    Economic

    • BRICS
    • RCEP
    • Belt and Road (leader)

    Other bodies

    • Not an ICC member

  • Historical

    • The Rohingya cast as 'Bengali' intruders
    • The army as guardian of a Buddhist Burma
    • The 1982 Citizenship Law

    Today

    • Regime survival
    • Escaping the ICJ and the ICC
    • Recognition for its 'civilian' government
    • Losing ground to ethnic armies

    Capacity

    Political

    • Min Aung Hlaing president since April 2026
    • Barred from ASEAN summits; not recognised by the West
    • Has lost much of the borderlands

    Economic

    • GDP about $65 billion
    • Gas, jade and rare earths
    • A collapsing kyat

    Military

    • Over 60,000 conscripted in 2025
    • Russian and Chinese jets
    • War from the air

    Memberships

    Military

    • None

    Economic

    • ASEAN (non-political representation since 2021)
    • BIMSTEC

    Other bodies

    • Not an ICC member
    • Non-Aligned Movement

Beyond the map